In this post I’m going to share what I consider the #1 mistake you’re probably making with your OCD and how Inference-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (ICBT) can help.
If you’re living with OCD, you know how exhausting it can be to constantly question whether something bad might happen. It feels like your mind is always running worst-case scenarios. Inference-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy can help you break free from this trap.
In this post we’ll discuss why possibility doesn’t matter and how you can stop letting your mind turn “what if” into “definitely will.”
Why Possibility Doesn’t Matter in ICBT
When it comes to OCD, possibility often gets overestimated. Anything and everything is technically possible—your coffee could be contaminated, the wiring in your house could be bad, the ceiling could collapse, or your mom could be robbing a bank right now. But do we actually worry about these things on a regular basis? Of course not. And there’s a reason for that.
In ICBT, we learn that possibility itself is a low bar. Just because something is possible doesn’t mean it’s worth your time or energy. Possibility just means that you can imagine it happening. It doesn’t mean it’s likely or relevant.
How Non-OCD Thinking Differentiates Possibility from Probability
In everyday life, we don’t let possibilities drive our thinking or our actions. We assume possibilities can be safely ignored.
We only start taking a possibility seriously when we have evidence, or when there’s something happening right now that suggests it might actually be a problem. That’s when a possibility becomes a probability.
Think of it this way: it’s possible that your house is flooding right now. But until you see water stains or puddles, it stays in the “possibility” bucket—not the “probability” bucket. When you have here-and-now evidence from your senses that a threat needs to be taken seriously, then, and only then, should it be treated like a probability and acted on.
When OCD Takes Possibility Too Seriously
OCD thinking, however, doesn’t work like this. OCD takes the mere fact that something is possible and turns it into a reason to worry. It skips the step of checking reality. If the thought feels scary or important enough, it latches on.
Imagine a jar full of possibilities. Your senses act like a seal, letting relevant possibilities float through the seal and into our awareness when there’s actual evidence. But OCD often breaks that seal, treating every possibility as equally important, even when there’s no evidence. The seal doesn’t work. That’s why it feels like your mind is stuck in a loop, constantly analyzing every “what if” to find certainty.
HowInference-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Helps Break the Possibility Trap
One of the core skills in ICBT is recognizing when your brain is treating possibility like probability. It’s about slowing down and asking: “What evidence do I have right now that makes this possibility relevant?”
If the answer is “none,” that’s a signal that your brain is caught in obsessional reasoning. You don’t need to think more, figure it out, seek reassurance or check Reddit. You can let it go because it’s just a thought, like one of many that your mind conjures up every day.
Is It Relevant or Just Possible?
Next time OCD tells you something scary is “possible,” pause and ask yourself: What would I need to see or hear right now for this to be a relevant problem? What would I be experiencing if I knew for sure that this worry were a real concern?
For example…
– Is it possible your identity is being stolen? Sure. Is there any evidence right now, like bank alerts or strange charges? If not, it’s just a possibility.
– Is it possible you have a deadly infection? Technically, yes. But without symptoms like fever or recent injury, it stays in the “possibility” bucket.
Breaking Free from OCD’s Possibility Trap
It’s normal to feel overwhelmed when OCD tries to convince you that every possibility matters. But you don’t have to live like that. Inference-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy offers a way to respond to those thoughts by focusing on what’s actually happening, not what could happen.
Next time you feel trapped by “what if,” take a breath and remind yourself: Possibility doesn’t equal probability. Your senses are your connection to reality, and if there’s no real evidence, you can let that thought float away.
If this was helpful and you’re tired of feeling trapped by endless ‘what ifs,’ our mini-class on how to stop the OCD loop can help. Sign up today to more about how possibility keeps you stuck and how to stay connected to reality.
Frequently Asked Questions about ICBT for OCD
Q: How is ICBT different from ERP therapy?
A: While ERP focuses on exposing yourself to fears without performing compulsions, ICBT targets the reasoning process that created the doubts in the first place. ICBT helps you understand how obsessional doubts form and teaches you to question whether those doubts are based on real evidence or mere possibility.
Q: What if my OCD thoughts still feel real, even when I know they’re just possibilities?
A: This is common, and it’s a sign that your brain is stuck in obsessional reasoning. In ICBT, the focus is on repeatedly practicing reality testing and reminding yourself that the mere feeling of certainty doesn’t make a thought more true. With practice, this starts to feel easier and the anxiety will go down over time.
Q: What if I do actually have evidence for my worry?
A: ICBT gives you a framework for understanding what evidence is and is not. While you might have experienced a very real trigger, if we’re talking about OCD, that trigger is probably not evidence. For example, a headache might be a trigger for a worry about cancer, but a headache is not evidence of a brain tumor. It’s only evidence of a headache.
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